Growth of Population: Phases, Trends, and Regional Patterns
Learning Objectives
- Define population growth and distinguish between its natural and induced components
- Trace India's population trajectory across four distinct phases from 1901 to the present
- Explain how changing birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns shaped each phase
- Interpret decadal growth rate data from the Census and calculate growth using the standard formula
- Identify the regional pattern of population growth across Indian states using Census 2001-2011 data
Growth of Population: Phases, Trends, and Regional Patterns
India’s population did not grow at a steady pace throughout history. The country went through dramatically different periods, from decades of near-zero growth to an explosive surge that added hundreds of millions within a single generation. Understanding these shifts requires looking at how birth rates, death rates, and migration interacted across the twentieth century.
What Population Growth Means
Population growth (the change in the number of people living in an area between two points in time) is measured as a percentage. It has two components:
- Natural growth comes from the difference between how many people are born and how many die. It is tracked through the crude birth rate (number of live births per thousand people per year) and the crude death rate (number of deaths per thousand people per year).
- Induced growth comes from migration (movement of people into or out of an area). When more people move in than move out, the area gains population; the reverse leads to a loss.
India’s annual population growth rate stood at 1.64 per cent as of the 2011 Census. Both the decadal (ten-year) and annual growth rates have been very high over the past century, though the trend has begun to shift in recent decades.
Population Doubling Time: This is the time a population would take to become twice its current size, given its present annual growth rate. A faster growth rate means a shorter doubling time, and vice versa.
Decadal Growth: The Numbers Behind the Story
The Census of India, conducted every ten years, gives us a clear picture of how the population has changed decade by decade. The decadal growth rate (percentage change in population over a ten-year period) is calculated using this formula:
Here, is the population at the start of the decade (base year) and is the population at the end of the decade (present year).
The table below lays out the full trajectory from 1901 to 2011:
| Census Year | Total Population | Absolute Change | Decadal Growth Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1901 | 23,83,96,327 | — | — |
| 1911 | 25,20,93,390 | +1,36,97,063 | +5.75 |
| 1921 | 25,13,21,213 | -7,72,117 | -0.31 |
| 1931 | 27,89,77,238 | +2,76,56,025 | +11.60 |
| 1941 | 31,86,60,580 | +3,96,83,342 | +14.22 |
| 1951 | 36,10,88,090 | +4,24,20,485 | +13.31 |
| 1961 | 43,92,34,771 | +7,76,82,873 | +21.51 |
| 1971 | 54,81,59,652 | +10,89,24,881 | +24.80 |
| 1981 | 68,33,29,097 | +13,51,69,445 | +24.66 |
| 1991 | 84,63,02,688 | +16,29,73,591 | +23.85 |
| 2001 | 1,02,86,10,328 | +18,23,07,640 | +21.54 |
| 2011 | 1,21,01,93,422 | +18,15,83,094 | +17.64 |
Source: Census of India, 2011 (Provisional)
A close look at these numbers reveals something striking. The absolute addition to the population kept climbing right through to 2001 (over 18 crore people added in a single decade), yet the percentage growth rate actually peaked in 1961-1971 and has been declining since. This gap between absolute numbers and growth rate is a direct result of the expanding base: even a lower percentage of a much larger population still produces a massive number of new people.
Four Phases of Population Growth
Scholars divide India’s population growth over the last century into four distinct phases, each shaped by a different combination of birth rates, death rates, and external factors.
Phase I (1901-1921): The Stagnant Years
The opening two decades of the twentieth century saw almost no net growth. The growth rate in 1901-1911 was a modest 5.75 per cent, and the following decade (1911-1921) actually recorded a negative growth rate of -0.31 per cent, meaning the population shrank slightly.
Why did this happen? Both the birth rate and the death rate were extremely high during this period. People were being born in large numbers, but they were also dying in large numbers. Three factors kept the death rate stubbornly high:
- Poor health and medical services: Modern healthcare had barely reached most of India. Epidemics, including the devastating influenza pandemic of 1918-19, killed millions.
- Widespread illiteracy: With very low levels of education, people had limited awareness of hygiene, nutrition, and disease prevention.
- Inefficient distribution of food and basic necessities: Even when food was available in one region, getting it to famine-affected areas was difficult due to poor infrastructure.
Because births and deaths roughly cancelled each other out, this period is called the stagnant or stationary phase of India’s population growth.
Phase II (1921-1951): Steady but Significant Growth
From 1921 onward, the population began growing more consistently. Growth rates climbed from 11.60 per cent (1921-1931) to 14.22 per cent (1931-1941) and 13.31 per cent (1941-1951).
The key change was on the death side of the equation. Improvements in health and sanitation across the country started bringing down the mortality rate (death rate). Better transport and communication systems improved the distribution of food and other essentials, reducing famine deaths. However, the crude birth rate stayed high because social attitudes towards family size had not yet shifted. This combination of falling deaths and persistent births produced a steady upward push.
What makes this growth particularly notable is that it happened against the backdrop of two major global upheavals: the Great Economic Depression of the 1920s and World War II. Despite these disruptions, the structural improvements in public health were strong enough to sustain population growth.
Phase III (1951-1981): The Population Explosion
This is the phase that transformed India into one of the world’s most populous countries. Growth rates surged past 20 per cent per decade for the first time in 1951-1961 (21.51 per cent) and stayed above 23 per cent for the next three decades. The average annual growth rate during this period reached roughly 2.2 per cent.
The driving force was a dramatic gap that opened up between births and deaths. After independence in 1947, the government launched large-scale developmental activities through centralised planning (the Five Year Plans). These efforts improved living conditions, expanded healthcare, and reduced mortality rapidly. The death rate fell sharply, but the fertility rate (birth rate) remained high because the benefits of development had not yet translated into widespread family planning.
Adding to the natural increase, international migration brought significant numbers of people into India during this period. Refugees and migrants from Tibet, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan contributed to the already swelling population figures.
Phase IV (Post-1981 to Present): Growth Begins to Slow
From 1981 onward, the decadal growth rate started a clear downward trend: 23.85 per cent in 1981-1991, then 21.54 per cent in 1991-2001, and further down to 17.64 per cent in 2001-2011. The population was still growing rapidly in absolute terms, but the rate of growth was unmistakably decelerating.
The main reason for this slowdown was a declining crude birth rate. Two factors drove this decline:
- Higher mean age at marriage: As people married later, the window for childbearing shortened, leading to fewer children per family on average.
- Improved female education: Better access to education for women empowered them to make more informed choices about family size and health.
Together, these social changes gradually narrowed the gap between birth and death rates, pulling down the overall growth rate. Yet the growth rate remained high enough that the World Development Report projected India’s population would reach 1,350 million (1.35 billion) by 2025.
Regional Variations: Not Every State Grows the Same Way
National averages hide enormous differences between states and Union Territories. The map of population growth for 2001-2011 (Figure 1.3) reveals a clear geographical pattern:
Fig 1.3: India, Growth of Population (2001-2011)
- Above 25 per cent growth: Some north-eastern states such as Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Mizoram recorded the highest growth rates, shown in the darkest shade on the map.
- 20-25 per cent growth: Large, densely populated states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh fell in this bracket. These states also tend to have lower levels of female literacy and higher fertility rates.
- 15-20 per cent growth: States like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Assam, and West Bengal showed moderate growth.
- 10-15 per cent growth: States including Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Odisha recorded slower growth, reflecting better socio-economic indicators.
- Below 10 per cent growth: Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Goa had the lowest growth rates in the country, consistent with their higher levels of education, healthcare access, and female empowerment.
This regional pattern makes it clear that population growth is closely tied to levels of development, education (especially female education), and healthcare. The states that have invested most in these areas are the ones where growth has slowed the fastest, while states lagging behind continue to add population at higher rates.